Bracketology

It's all the rage. Picking the brackets. Trying to figure out who will win. The way I do it is I sit down with a bracket, and I go with my gut on who will win what games. So that ended me up with a final three others of Nevada, Kansas and UNC. What, you think my gut EVER goes against Duke?

The problem with my method is best expressed in the above group of teams. Don't get me wrong - I think UNC is a darn good team, and that Roy is a great coach, and I think they will ultimately scare the be-jesus out of a top team. But, I don't think they have the stamina and maturity it takes to get to the Final Four. I know nothing about Kansas except that their coach is Bill Self. Nevada - I just know they're "hot" and that they play at high altitudes which makes them a tough matchup for Boston College.

BC would have been a "gut" pick but for the Nevada factor.

In all, I'm actually happy with Duke's bracket. I think that we were somewhat screwed by being given a strong 3 and 4 in our region. Texas as a #2 doesn't scare me - we beat them by 30, and it easily could have been 50 had we chosen to do so. That game will play heavily in their minds. Iowa is a VERY strong #3 in my view, and LSU is strong at the 4 spot. I still feel pretty good about our chances.

Where I think we did get a bit of a raw deal is in the possibility of playing UNC by the Sea. They will have a home court there in Greensboro between it being close to their home and the fact that the rest of the teams pull against the 1 seed. I think they have a good shot at taking down GW, who has played virtually nobody at all.

Lastly to address Gonzaga. I cannot believe that the committee didn't set up the JJ vs. Adam Morrison showdown in the regional by giving the 'Zags the 2 in our region. I don't really understand that at all. Frankly, I'm also shocked that Kentucky isn't our 8 seed either.

In all, our region is balanced. Top to bottom, it's tough - especially in the middle and lower seeds. But, I think it is one where Duke can win, as long as we play our game and well.

For the other regions, I'm still at a loss. I'm very reluctant to pick UConn - they haven't shown me that they have a will to win. UCLA stands a decent chance at taking the West, as does Memphis or Gonzaga, or for that matter Kansas. It's certainly tough. The East region is up in the air for me too. UConn is very likely to flame out. I just don't know which team will do it. Tennesee is such an unknown now. UNC will beat someone, I tell you. They're good - they work hard and they're well coached. I just don't think they quite have all the pieces to pull out a Final Four appearance. And the Midwest is a mystery.

At the end of the day, my ability to be an effective bracketologist is really hampered by my lack of knowledge of this year's teams. I haven't had the time or energy to sit and watch game after game. I've seen most of Duke's games, and a few other ACC matchups, and maybe one or two non-ACC games. Outside that, I haven't had the time, or the energy, or the interest.